How different groups voted in the Iowa caucuses, according to entrance polls – The Washington Post

See the strengths and weaknesses of each Republican candidate according to a statewide survey of Iowans as they entered Monday’s caucuses. Entrance poll results reflect caucus-goers’ initial preferences for candidates and do not take into account which candidates caucus-goers supported after realignment during caucuses or the delegate count.
Former president Donald Trump won the lion’s share of caucus-goers from most demographic groups measured in network entrance polling, sealing his victory in the first contest of the 2024 election season.
Former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley won most caucus-goers who described themselves as “moderate” or “liberal,” along with those who said President Biden legitimately won the 2020 election and those looking for a candidate with the right temperament.
Trump won about half of both men and women in the Iowa caucuses Monday, according to network entrance polls, putting him far ahead of any other candidates among both groups.
Trump was strongest among caucus-goers ages 45 and older, who made up the vast majority of the electorate Monday night. Over half of older voters supported Trump, while he received about 4 in 10 votes among those ages 30 to 44. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis fared best with Republican caucus-goers under age 30, winning 3 in 10 of this group and topping Trump.
Two-thirds of Republicans without four-year college degrees supported Trump in the Iowa caucuses, according to entrance polls. College graduates were a bit more split, with just under 4 in 10 supporting Trump and fewer supporting Haley and DeSantis.
Republicans made up the overwhelming majority of caucus-goers in the Iowa GOP caucuses, and most of them supported Trump. About 4 in 10 self-identified independents who caucused with the Republicans on Monday night also supported the former president, while about a third supported Haley.
Trump won about 6 in 10 self-described “very conservative” caucus-goers but also won almost half of those who are “somewhat conservative,” according to network entrance polls.
He earned the support of fewer than a quarter of those who called themselves moderate or liberal, a group that made up a small minority of caucus-goers. Most of those voters supported Haley.
In 2016, Trump received more support from moderate or liberal caucus-goers (33 percent) than among those who were very conservative (21 percent).
White evangelical Christians made up a little more than half of caucus-goers in Iowa on Monday night, and a narrow majority of them supported Trump. Trump’s support was slightly lower among other voters, though he still led his rivals by a wide margin.
Trump’s support among White evangelicals was more than twice as high as his 21 percent support in the 2016 Iowa caucuses. That year, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) won 33 percent of this group, fueling his victory.
A majority of Iowa caucus-goers decided whom to support before this month’s event, and about two-thirds of them supported Trump. Among those who decided within the last month, about a third supported Haley, about 3 in 10 supported DeSantis, and a quarter supported Trump.
Immigration and the economy were the biggest issues for Iowa caucus-goers, with over a third naming each as their most important issue in their vote. Most of both groups supported Trump. About 1 in 10 caucus-goers said abortion was the most important issue in their vote, and a similar proportion said that of foreign policy.
About 4 in 10 Iowa caucus-goers said they were looking for a candidate who shares their values, and about 4 in 10 of them supported Trump Monday night while 3 in 10 supported DeSantis. About one-third said they wanted a candidate who fought for people like them, and about 8 in 10 of them supported Trump.
About 6 in 10 Iowa Republicans said they would favor a federal law banning most or all abortions nationwide on Monday night, according to entrance polling. Most of them supported Trump.
Two-thirds of Iowa caucus-goers said Biden did not legitimately win the presidential election in 2020. About 7 in 10 of those voters supported Trump, according to entrance polls.
Among the roughly 3 in 10 who said Biden is a legitimate president, most supported Haley.
About two-thirds of Iowa caucus-goers said they would consider Trump to be fit for president even if he were convicted of a crime, while just over 3 in 10 said they would not. Trump won about 7 in 10 of those who said he would still be fit to serve even if he were convicted.
Just under half of Iowa Republicans said they were part of the MAGA movement, according to entrance polling Monday night. A large majority of them supported Trump. Among the other half of caucus-goers, support was more split.
Methods: These findings are entrance poll results from interviews of 1,628 caucus-goers as they entered randomly selected caucus locations across Iowa on Jan. 15, 2024. The poll was conducted by Edison Research for the National Election Pool (ABC, CBS, CNN, NBC), The Washington Post and other media organizations. Results were weighted to match vote tallies by region and to correct for differential participation by subgroup. Totals may not add to 100 percent because of rounding.
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